A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has something to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
